TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH BUT ARE
FAR APART IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. NAM AND GFS DROP A DUMBBELLING
500 MB CLOSED LOW INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. A 90-110 KT JET
OVER NW UTAH WILL MOVE EAST TO NE UT AND NW CO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER NW UT. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN NV...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PUSH RATHER SLOWLY TO THE EAST BUT WILL ROTATE TO BECOME MORE NORTH-
TO-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT APPROACHES THE UT/CO BORDER SAT MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG BAND
OF WINDS ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BAROCLINIC BAND WILL REMAIN OVER
EXTREME NE UT AND NW CO TODAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS HERE. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...
SUPPORTING THE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND ALLOWING ISOLD CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR RIDGES. BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE DAYS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AGAIN AS IT APPEARS A MAX WIND BAND WILL TRAVEL
OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS PREDICTED
THROUGH EASTERN UTAH IN THE MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN CO
SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. THE BEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND HAVE TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE PRECIP GRIDS.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD DROP FROM
ABOUT 10,000 TO AROUND 9000 FT SATURDAY.